For me personally, it's the perfect result one could ever wished for.
Why not? UMNO/BN can for a while now bask in their 'self-deceptive' victory, thinking that they are on the right track!!! (Despite Muhyiddin saying 'the bucks stops in MU'). And PAS/PR gets the much needed 'rude awakening', while still retaining the seat - time to buck up guys!!
But then again, what most people missed is the fact that MU has always been Pak Su We's seat! Not a PAS's nor UMNO's seat! Look at the past results over the so many terms. PAS held the seat because it was Pak Su We, with big margins. The moment Pak Su We did not stand in 2004, PAS lost by 53 votes. My take is, the people in MU just do not know whom they like to replace Pak Su We with (being a Kelantanese, I can vouch for this behaviour). And no, most of them are not internet savvy or even connectible, so save us from the federal issues affecting the voters decisions.
Wokay, no analysis from me (already too many on the net, tv, newspapers etc). Just want to post some interesting snippets found on the net. We can all draw our own conclusions......
Chen KH said...
Great blog, Dato. Thanks for your insights.Was it really such a great UMNO victory? I am not a statistician but the numbers do tell a story by itself, interpretation is up each individual. The SPR had divined a voter turnout of 85% (Malaysian Insider, July 13). Previous by-elections on a weekday saw turnouts of 71-75% not barring Penanti. Previous Manek Urai election turnout on a Saturday was 84%. This election saw 87%. 67% of the voters are between the ages of 21-49. The age most likely to be mobile and be working out of state.My take is that at 85% turnout UMNO would have won. The extra 2% swung it back.Lets not thread where it might be libelous to cast aspersions on a government body. Chen KH
Fairplay said...
Dato, in any competition, the best man should win,don't you think so? Congrats to the winner!But, dato, are you implying (and thus confirming our suspicion) that UMNO has control over the election dates and thus by extension over the EC?
Anonymous said...
Well, much as I hate to say it, the 65 vote win does signal tremendous issues for PAS in general and really TGNA and Husam in particular.The only thing that can help relieve the pressure on Pakatan - a by election happens in a BeeEnd held seat in the peninsular like KT. If Pakatan wins AGAIN, pressure goes back 110% on BeeEnd and Najib.Much as i dont like, we now need to pray for the death of a BeeEnd assemblyperson whether state or parliament and MOST MOST preferably, one that is based in Perak.!!!!! So, pls , anyone, time to go to the next world !!!!! And we need you to konk out within the next 2 mths !!!!!! :)
kuldeep said...
If the government goes on to build that little bridge in Manek Urai (the cost is abt CIMB boss annual salary)..then indicative that the BN psyche have transformed to the positive. If it does not build the bridge it goes on to demonstrate that they will continue to punish 5000 innocents who supported them to spite the 5000 who didn't. By the way, the RM 7 m belongs to the rakyat and not to UMNO.
Second Snip: Malaysiakini Article
http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/108458
Duit untuk pengundi 'tidak cukup'
Muda Mohd NoorJul 14, 091:28pm
Seorang bekas pemimpin Umno Kuala Krai mendakwa sehingga tengah malam tadi masalah pembahagian duit kepada pengundi Umno di DUN Manek Urai belum selesai."Masih ada lagi yang mendakwa belum menerima duit yang dijanjikan. Saya difahamkan mereka akan mendapat RM300 seorang."Saya difahamkan duit tidak cukup, terpaksa menunggu duit baru," katanya, yang enggan namanya disiarkan, kepada Malaysiakini.
Diminta mengulas dakwaan tersebut, Ketua Wanita Umno Kuala Krai, Rohani Abdul Majid bagaimanapun berkata, duit berkenaan bukannya untuk pengundi DUN Manek Urai.
Sebaliknya, kata beliau, dana itu untuk petugas parti yang berkempen untuk calon BN Tuan Aziz Tuan Mat.Katanya, petugas dijanjikan dibayar upah RM30 sehari untuk kerja-kerja seperti merayu undi dan menampal poster."Kalau mereka bekerja 10 hari akan dapat RM300, tetapi ada juga yang bekerja untuk tempoh beberapa hari sahaja.
"Jika ada orang kata duit tersebut untuk pengundi supaya menyokong Umno, ia tidak betul," tambahnya. "Mereka mungkin salah maklumat."
Third Snip: excerpts from Dr Rafick's Article
http://rights2write.wordpress.com/2009/07/14/manek-urai-%E2%80%93-a-lesson-for-all-parties/
"3. Looking at the campaigning that took place in MU, it appears that BN or UMNO did not do the campaigns but the campaign was actually conducted by the Federal Government. The media machinery of the government played a significant role. Literally, the entire Cabinet and the ministries went down to campaign. The government even promised the people of MU a new bridge. That shows the level of desperation in the BN camp. Racial sentiment and fear tactics was also strongly played by BN. They even had to resort seeking Lee Kuan Yew help in campaigning. Maybe this is the precursor to stronger relationship between Malaysia and Singapore.
4. For the PAS supporters they must be wondering what went wrong. It does not take a genius to figure it out. The promised of the bridge, the gifts in the forms of bicycle, school bags and various other goodies for the poor came from the welfare departments which only surfaced during elections had their impact. I guess the sweetest deal being financial incentives that was provided by some friendly parties to UMNO. Reports surfaces that people were being given between RM50 to RM300 for their support. Only God knows the truth."
Fourth Snip: from Sheikh Kickdefella
http://kickdefella.wordpress.com/
Para penyokong PAS cuba memujuk pemandu sebuah kenderaan SPR Johor yang tidak diiringi Polis dan agen pilihanraya supaya tidak membawa kereta itu yang membawa dua beg besar dan sebiji buah durian dari masuk ke pusat penjumlahan undi ketika saat-saat genting mengatakan keputusan semasa menunjukkan PAS nyawa-nyawa ikan. Kejadian ini berlaku satu jam selepas peti undi terakhir diiringi masuk dan laluan ke pusat penjumlahan telah tidak lagi di kawal polis.Fifth Snip: Wandering Troubador's The Other Side of The Story
http://wandering-troubadour.blogspot.com/
(also appears in MalaysiaToday's http://mt.m2day.org/2008/content/view/24355/84/ No Holds Barred)
"Analysts are coming out with a host of reasons for PAS’s dismal performance or BN’s success in gaining more territories. Some attributed BN’s “success” to Najib’s 11 points reward to people for allowing him to remain up to 100 days in power and also his “contributions” to economic excitement. I want to simply say “Bollocks”. This is what the BN think-tank would like us the public to believe. But if they themselves believe the spin as well, it spells disaster for them comes the 13th general election. We wait patiently for that day to arrive!"
Well guys, brace for an even more exciting times in Malaysian politics.................
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